When will the Rays trade Reid Brignac?

Over the past couple weeks, there were two trades where two Major League clubs, the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles, have made trades that shipped away their players that were once highly touted prospects. The first was the Felix Pie trade sending him from the Cubs to the Orioles for two young pitchers including a former top prospect and a lower level prospect. The Cubs were waiting for Pie’s bat to wake up for a couple of years at the Major League level, then decide to move on by signing free agent outfielder Joey Gathright to be fifth outfielder, leaving no space for Pie. Pie was considered a potential five-tool player, but only hit a .331 SLG in 260 ABs for the Cubs. The Cubs with enough position players, still needed to add a few pitchers their bullpens. So they traded from surplus with the Orioles, who had a little too many pitchers, to add Garret Olson, a starter, and convert him to a reliever which Baseball America thinks is best suited for him.
 
Then the Cubs decided to go after reliever Aaron Heilman of the Seattle Mariners and have been coveting him for a long time. So the Cubs traded newcomer Olson and another former prospect shortstop Ronny Cedeno. Cedeno was always a great fielder and has a good line drive stroke. The Mariners have got a great backup middle infielder and have the chance to use Olsen as a starter or reliever which the Mariners have confidence in.
 
Most of these players have been top prospects with their teams but have not panned out to what they were projected to be. Aaron Heliman hasn’t been a good starting pitcher, Felix Pie isn’t hitting, Ronny Cedeno has been inconsistent, and Garrett Olson has had two straight years with an ERA of over 6.65. This is a very common occurrence as most baseball players that sign with an organization don’t even make the Major Leagues(around 5%). So what has this have to do with trading Reid Brignac? The Rays have so many high level prospects that they all can’t become stars at the Major League level, that it is inevitable that the players who don’t make it will eventually be traded or let go.

I don’t think Brignac is going to bust anytime soon being only 23 this season. But his stock has declined the past season and may have to be converted to utility infielder if he doesn’t hit to his potential. Although the Rays don’t have a surplus of middle infielders in the organization, the situation may become like Ronny Cedeno’s and their isn’t will to keep Brignac any more and be expendable. The Rays will give him this season and next season to become a great defensive shortstop and hit to his potential. After that, if he still is in the minors look for the Rays to move him in order to bring up their 2008 first overall draft pick Tim Beckham through the organization. Then another question is brought up, how long will the Rays keep Jason Bartlett. The Rays will have to evaluate Brignac at the end of this season and determine if they want to bring him up for 2010 or sign Bartlett to a multi year contract to see what they want to do at the shortstop position in the future. If Bartlett is signed by the Rays after 2010, then that will mean that Bartlett will man the position until Beckham is ready. But don’t be suprised if the Rays start to shop around Brignac this year if they can get a good deal in return.

There are other older Rays prospects that have been losing their top prospect status. Starter Chris Mason has been struggling at Triple-A Durham, reliever Chad Orvella struggled in the Rays bullpen and has been battling injuries, Ryan Royster isn’t progressing in the minors, and Joel Guzman who had huge power potential but never got it together and signed with the Nationals this off-season. So it isn’t out of the question that Brignac might not reach his potential. The Rays have numerous high level prospects in their organization and the chance that a few of them might not even reach the Majors is very high. The better question is which of the prospects will flop and which prospects will make it?