The renaissance of Jason Bartlett

When it becomes a serious question, “Do I trade Stephen Drew for Jason Bartlett?” something is up.  Up is Jason Bartlett.  Up from a career .282 AVG to a current .373 AVG.  Up from a career high 5 homeruns to 5 homeruns already this season.  Up to 11 steals on the season, almost half way to his career high of 23.  At some point hot starts continue to stay hot and what was once considered somewhat of a fluke now looks more and more real by the day.  Is this the case with Jason Bartlett?  Will he produce better than Stephen Drew from here on out?  It may be closer than you’d expect. 

Now wait one minute!  Bartlett has a BABIP of around .400!  This can’t possibly be for real!  This is why it is just not enough to list high BABIP’s and suggest that those players are destined for huge drop offs.  It goes beyond just assuming that all BABIP will regress big time toward (or end near) .300.  Yes, a BABIP around .400 is sure to regress, but not by as much as one might think.  Chipper Jones led the league last season with a .388 BABIP.  His career BABIP is .323, which may actually seem low for a hitter with such great plate discipline and career 21.4% line drive rate.  Now there is no way to compare Jason Bartlett to Chipper Jones as a hitter, but as far as average on balls in play and line drive rate, Bartlett is right there.  For his career, Bartlett has a .324 BABIP and 20.1% line drive rate.  Then consider a player like Fred Lewis, who last season held a BABIP of .367 despite at no point having his AVG reach .350 or even above .300 from July on.  Then there is 2008 Ryan Ludwick, who held a .349 BABIP despite a .318 career BABIP. 

Then there is what Bartlett is doing this season.  He’s always been a good contact hitter.  This season he has become a more selective hitter, selective in jumping on pitches in the zone no matter what the count.  Bartlett has swung at almost 65% of first pitch strikes and swung at 69.4% of pitches in the strike zone.  He has been making contact on 93.6% of those swings at strikes.  This approach is not as aggressive as say what Rickie Weeks has been doing in 2009, but it’s slight enough that when combined with the fact that he still is only striking out about 15% of the time, it can be the difference between 5 and 7-10 HR and between a .285 and .310 AVG.  Through May 16th, of Bartlett’s 142 plate appearances he has only had 2 strikes on him 45 times (31.7%). 

When looking at Jason Bartlett compared to Stephen Drew, two things could make Bartlett more valuable.  First, Drew is striking out at a 100+ K pace right now.  That may hinder his AVG just a bit, keeping him below last year’s .291.  Second, while Stephen Drew certainly has more upside in the power department, he won’t be stealing many bases while dealing with lingering hamstring issues.  Not that he was a real big SB threat to begin with anyway.  Bartlett is on pace for over 40 steals.  While 40 steals is a lofty goal, 30 steals is within reach. 

Even if the power production slows, which it almost certainly will, the AVG has a good shot to end over .300, the runs scored should approach 80-90 and the stolen base total could end in the 25-30 range.  Unless your team has a need for more home runs and RBI, there is no reason to sell on Jason Bartlett.