The question of Martell Webster

Martell Webster

6’7, 235 lbs, 6’11 wingspan.  Athletic.  Straight to the NBA out of Seattle Prep. 24 years old and in his 5^th season (though really, it’s his 4^th given last year).

Prior to last season, I thought the 08-09 season would be his breakout year.  Off by about a foot on that one. And it probably wouldn’t have been anyway.  After fits and starts coming back from a year off, Webster’s highlight hops as he goes after a rebound, nice reverses at the hoop, tight stroke from 3 looking better … well, it’s time for a look to see if this is a long-term Blazer AND what kind of Blazer he might be.

Good attitude.  Good guy, from all reports.  Improving defender.  Paying more attention to rebounding.  Seemingly more comfortable in his role and in himself (especially with recent play).  A contract in the area of 4.3 mil this year, 4.8 next year, 5.2 in 11-12, and 5.7 mil (not fully guaranteed) in 12-13 [rounded off from storytellerscontracts.com].

A pretty reasonable contract.

Excepting 2008-09, here are some numbers to consider [from 2005 to this season]:

61 games (18 started) / 82(27) / 75 (70) / 41 (32 started; when I gathered these stats)

Minutes average per game: 17.5 / 21.5 / 28.4 / 27.8. 

Yes, 27.8 mpg with Batum and Outlaw out.

2pt percentage for the four years starting with 2005:

44.6 / 43.0 / 45.4 / 45.0

3pt percentage for the four years starting with 2005:

35.7 / 36.4 / 38.8 / 38.1 (on total attempts from 3 of 182, 250, 317, and 197 so far this year)

3pt shots as a percentage of his total field goal attempts:

52.2 / 50.8 / 48.3 / 55.2

Conclusions on field goal shooting?  Keep shooting 3’s if you’re not going to improve from inside the line.

Free throw percentage is a bit here or there, but he’s at about 75% for his career.  Too low for a shooter with his stroke.  Why is it this low?  He doesn’t get there often so it’s not a feature part of his game.  Free throw attempts per game starting in 2005: 1.1 / 1.6 / 2.1 / 1.9

Stopping with the stats for just a second, let me admit some stat shortcomings.  I’m not dealing with PER or any other big brain stat or the metrics used by KP2 (much less those used by KP1).  These are pretty basic, not comprehensive, and only included as a series of snapshots in seeing a bigger picture.

With additional minutes (30-32), let’s assume that Webster’s percentages stay more or less the same and the attempts/pts/rebounds/etc. go up proportionally (which we also know is quite the player-friendly assumption).  His per game minutes so far in his career (just eyeballing them) seem to justify this gross approximation for the moment.

So let me also recap some numbers:

Webster is a young vet (24), of good size and well above average athleticism for his position.  He’s a strong 3 point shooter though not quite into the uber elite realm of 40% or higher.  On 3’s, it’s how he gets his points. This year alone, he’s got 225 points on 3’s, 144 on 2’s, and 59 from the line.  His man and help D look better.  He’s going after rebounds (from 2.1 to 2.9, 3.9 to 4.1).

When considering whether MW and his pretty friendly contract and sweet 3 pt motion makes for a long-term Blazer (or a welcome addition to another squad), I’ll also admit to wanting to see certain changes in his game.  I’ve wanted to see him improve on 3 parts, specifically—defense, rebounding, and a mid range game (and in).  [I chose rebounding instead of assists … because he’s a SF, it’s needed at that position, and he has athleticism/length on D.]  Though the rebounding numbers are just a slight uptick, it’s a good one.  The D is okay for now.  He can still improve to become a good defender (not a stopper, but good for his position).

How, then, does Martell Webster improve upon his scoring, especially his midrange game and in?  [Points per game starting in 05: 6.6 / 7.0 / 10.7 / 10.4]  [Remember: He’s already taking 5 3’s per game this season.]

Three ways.

1.  More shot attempts: 5.7 / 6 / 8.75 / 8.7 (this year)

If you want Martell scoring 18-20, he needs more attempts.  See Joe Johnson’s numbers—around 18 shots a game.

2.  Get to the line for some easy points.  Again, referencing JJ, for the last 5 years (which includes this season), JJ’s been at 4 / 5.5 / 4.6 / 4.6 and down to 3.5 free throws per game this year.  Webster is half that.

3.  Do better from inside the 3.  JJ’s percentages for 2’s over the last 5 years: 48.7 / 50.4 / 45.4 / 46.6 / 48.4

But you say, whoa.  MW’s percentages here are lower, but c’mon, MW’s are 44.6 / 43.0 / 45.4 / n/a / 45.0

To this, I say, yeah, you’re right.  They’re lower but not crazy lower.  And even JJ’s FT attempts aren’t stratospheric.  And who wants JJ as a Blazer anyway?

However, taken together, it’s here that the missing skill from MW’s repertoire continues to show itself.  It’s what makes Joe Johnson a far more complete player.

Handles.  Handles that don’t have Webster driving the lane.  Handles that have him running off screens out to the 3 point line instead of into the key.  Handles that don’t get free throw attempts and put the other team in foul trouble.  [Jump shooters don’t get the call.]

Reality time: Would Webster become Joe Johnson on this team if his handles were better, his minutes went up, and he got more shot attempts? No.  There are guys named Roy, Aldridge, and Oden that make most of that unlikely … to be kind.

Let’s just go with an idea that MW improves his handles enough to get more shots with some easy 2’s.  Improves a bit on his free throws and gets there by getting in the paint and at the rim.  He still won’t get JJ’s assist totals, but he could at least do as well at rebounding (probably better).  And with better handles his post up game might actually appear.  He doesn’t need to be Joe Johnson, and he isn’t Shawn Marion (with nearly double digit rebounds, no handles to speak of and an ugly, rattlesnake shot). 

Conclusions:

Keep improving on D.  Get up to around 6 rebounds if you’re serious about it.  Develop your handles to slash, curl, post-up, jam, and draw contact.  What would that Webster be?  A 13-14 ppg scorer, stretching the D, defending well, and pulling his weight on the glass.  What could Webster be if he did the same for another team?  More.  Yes, he’d score more and play more on a team that had more possessions and no Big3.  He could become all that he could be … especially with better handles.  This is a case where Webster would be more valuable to another team than he is to the Blazers.  He doesn’t have to be traded, and he shouldn’t be traded in a package unless the return is significant.

I end up with three basic questions regarding Webster.

* Will he get the time and touches to be a 14 and 6 guy who gets a raise on his next contract?

* Will he be happy averaging 14 (which is 3.6 more than now) when (I believe) he’d have a better chance to do better elsewhere?

* Can he accept being a 4^th option for the Blazers on offense and work hard enough on D, rebounding, and his handles (to facilitate a better inside game)?

I have no answers at this time … not even bad ones.  Any shoddy stat work or interpretation of such is purely my fault.  Airballing on more relevant/significant stats or considerations is to be expected.