Should The Tampa Bay Rays Trade Jason Bartlett?

Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett had an excellent 2009 campaign. Bartlett, in his second season with the Rays, posted a line of .320/.389/.490 with 14 home runs and a 129 OPS+ in 567 plate appearances. Despite grading out -5.5 runs below average on defense according to FanGraphs, he was worth an incredible 4.8 Wins Above Replacement/$21.7-M. To put that into perspective, only three shortstops—studs Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki—ranked higher in WAR.

Considering how scarce quality shortstops are, Tampa Bay is doing quite well for itself at the position. While Bartlett, who made just under $2-M this past season, is due for a nice salary boost in arbitration, he represents great value even with a considerable raise expected and is under control until after 2011. For these reasons, it is not surprising that his name has not surfaced all that much in articles written about potential shortstop trade candidates.

Selling high on Bartlett this winter, however, may be in the Rays’ best interest. For starters, the 29-year-old infielder is unlikely to ever match his offensive output from ’09. Headed into the spring, he had hit only 11 home runs in his entire major league career. While there is chance that his power surge was more than a mirage, his track record suggests that he will not come close to matching that total again. Plus, he had never posted a league-average OPS+ before, either, with totals ranging from 75 to 99 in the four seasons prior.

OPS+ totals by year:

2005: 73
2006: 99
2007: 89
2008: 83
2009: 129

That final number appears to be a pretty big outlier. In looking at Bartlett’s batted ball data, there a few numbers that stick out. His line drive rate really surged, shooting up to a career-best 26.0%. The up tick in line drives partially explains why his .368 batting average on balls in play was .38 points above his career average. Given his speed and ability to leg out infield hits, he has always been able to produce higher BABIPs than league average, but both his line drive rate and luck on balls in play should regress going forward.

According to FanGraphs’ pitch type values, Bartlett became a much more productive hitter against fastballs and sliders. Indeed, going into ’09, he had graded out 17.7 runs below average on heaters and -5.6 runs below average on sliders. He produced 24.3 runs above average on fastballs and 5.0 runs above average on sliders this past season, which is a great sign. Another encouraging sign worth nothing, he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone; his O-Swing% fell to 20.9%, coinciding with an improvement in his walk rate (9.7%).

Bartlett’s success was the result of more than good fortune, it seems, but he is still going to fall back. Even if his on-base and power spikes are for real, his offensive value will never be higher than it is right now, in reality and based on perception. The two currently available projections systems, Bill James and CHONE, forecast the following lines for him in 2010.

James: .291/.355/.407, .762 OPS, .337 wOBA
CHONE: .283/.349/.408

The two projections are pretty similar, suggesting that Bartlett, even factoring in a regression, will again be a valuable offensive performer for a shortstop. Thus, even if his defense does not recover, he will likely be worth somewhere in the 3.5 WAR range.

However, defense is another issue to consider. Bartlett is best known for his glove work, even winning Team MVP honors from the local chapter of the BBWAA as a symbol for the Rays’ jump from worst-to-first in team defensive efficiency on the way to the American League pennant in ’08. According to UZR, though, his defense actually regressed to a then-low 2.1, which many attributed to injury limiting his range. Interestingly, the number got only worse in his second season with Tampa Bay, falling to 5.5 UZR and -6.8 UZR/150. While UZR is far from perfect and known to fluctuate wildly from year to year, his total has now headed in the wrong direction for five straight seasons.

2005: 14.4
2006: 11.5
2007: 7.8
2008: 2.1
2009: -5.5

Had Bartlett put up a statistical defensive performance similar to his pre’07 levels, Tulowitzki may have had a run for his money. Given the injury and jump in age, though, it is not surprising that a player would lose a step in the field and it is indeed a concerning trend. Beyond the Boxscore recently published age-adjusted UZR predictions for ’10, forecasting Bartlett to produce a 1.0 UZR and 1.0 UZR/150, which seems reasonable. Even on the optimistic side, however, most likely he will never shave off double digits in runs again as he ages.

All factors considered, Bartlett’s value is definitely at its peak since his defense should continue to regress. The Rays have a legitimate chance of competing in the AL East right now, and losing him will hurt the Rays’ major league product in the short term. Due to that fact, holding onto him and then seeing how the season plays out is the safe play. The opportunity to sell high with an internal reinforcement, Reid Brignac, ready to fill in, though, presents an intriguing possibility.

Brignac has undergone quite a transformation as a prospect. He was once viewed as a potential offensive stud shortstop whose size and defensive limitations would someday move him to third base. In the past two seasons, though, his defense has improved tremendously at the position while he has struggled to adjust to advanced pitching at the higher levels of the minors. Named the best defensive shortstop in the International League by the circuit’s coaches and managers in ’08, many scouts are confident in his chances of becoming an above-average defender at the position in the majors.

However, Brignac hit just .250/.299/.412 with concerning rates of 6.6 BB% and 26.4 K% in his Triple-A debut. Back at Durham for another go of it this spring, he improved his line to .278/.327/.415, cutting down on the strikeouts (16.6 K%) but drawing fewer walks (6.1 BB%). While his plate discipline is a bit of a cause for concern, a .744 Triple-A OPS is hardly terrible for a 23-year-old plus defensive shortstop. As well, he still has impressive pop for a middle infielder as well, with the potential to become a solid offensive contributor at the highest level during his peak years.

Replacing Bartlett with Brignac would certainly cost Tampa Bay a few runs on offense in the near term. James projects the youngster to hit .259/.306/.408 with a .311 wOBA in ’10, a .26-point difference. CHONE is a bit more pessimistic, forecasting a line of .256/.308/.395. If Brignac is as solid in the field as his reputation suggests, however, the defensive aspect could make up for some of the difference. This is where, as a team, trusting what your scouts say is paramount.

Losing Bartlett, or any the other potential trade candidates on the roster, would hurt. He is beloved by the local media and fan base, making any potential move a potential public relations hit. Dealing him if the return makes it worthwhile—Sandy Kazmir had a fine post about what Bartlett could command back in August at DRaysBay—will free up payroll and allow the club to potentially improve in other areas. With contention within grasp, moving him will be difficult, but, by holding onto him, Tampa Bay runs the risk of having his value fall off and eliminating any hope of cashing him in for a nice package of cheap, team-controlled players who could help out elsewhere.