Riley’s Plan

Miami Heat President Pat Riley has apparently rekindled talks with free agent guard Allen Iverson, calling him regarding a one-year marriage. This news comes just days after Riley said that he wasn’t bringing in anybody to start over Mario Chalmers and that he plans to make an off-season splash in 2010, not now.

So what gives Riley hope that he has a legitimate shot at signing a player who said that he would rather retire than come off the bench just a few months ago? Frankly, Iverson isn’t drawing a lot of attraction from the rest of the League. The two other teams that have expressed interest in Iverson — Memphis and the Los Angeles Clippers — already have starting point guards in place. The Grizzlies have Mike Conley and even O.J. Mayo to play the point while the Clippers still have Baron Davis. Their interest in Iverson is more of a way to sell tickets than to make him a cornerstone of the franchise. Iverson knows that he is only looking at a one-year deal at this point in his career; and he’s going to have to accept a reduced role wherever he goes.
 
In lieu of many other teams in the Eastern Conference getting stronger, it makes sense to sign The Answer to a low-risk contract. He can still provide scoring off the bench and may end up being Riley’s counter to the Atlanta Hawks’ signing of Jamal Crawford. Nonetheless, an Iverson signing would end up only bridging the Heat through the fairly passive off-season moves of 2008 to 2009 before a retooling in 2010 — just like what the Jermaine O’Neal trade was. It is all a part of Riley’s plan.

Miami could have had a more active 2009 off-season if Riley didn’t trade away Shawn Marion’s expiring contract for O’Neal’s, which had an additional year left. But Riley always viewed 2010 as the opportune moment to strike, and knew that no top-tier free agent would sign a one-year deal, especially in this economic climate. In the end, Riley’s thinking was that an ‘09 free agent might have made
the Heat better, but would have also ruined his team’s ‘10 cap space.
If there is still a chance to get Bosh, he’s got to take that chance.

That
doesn’t mean that the 2009-10 season will end up being similar to the
2007-08 15-win season. There are still a lot of questions that need to
be answered. Can Mario Chalmers be a starting point guard on a
championship-contending team? Will Michael Beasley be able to offer
something at the small forward spot? Can Daequan Cook develop into a
legitimate offensive spark off the bench? Will James Jones, who has a
team option for the 2010-11 season, earn a spot to stay in Miami?
Furthermore, O’Neal and Iverson are in a contract year, and they both
want to prove that they have a multi-year deal left in themselves. I’m
a little bit concerned about whether Wade will come into this season as
motivated as he was going into last, but I’m sure Flash has seen all of
the commercials and basketball analysts debating whether Kobe Bryant or
LeBron James is the best player in the League without even putting Wade
in the conversation.

If everyone steps up to the plate and
delivers this season, Riley will probably emulate what the Boston
Celtics did to rise to prominence just two years ago. That means that he will build the
team around the two, the three and the four. In the Heat’s case, it
will be Wade, Beasley and Bosh, of course. Riley has likened Chalmers to Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo, and the Heat President is committed to developing the Kansas product no matter who is brought in. All that is left is the center position, and I’m guessing that Riley will want a physical, defensive presence. Marcus Camby will be a free agent, and he could be the guy. He’ll be 36 in 2010, but he has shown that he can still rebound and block shots, although his shot-blocking has dropped off considerably. Defensive-minded centers are scarce in the NBA and even scarcer in the 2010 free agent class, and Camby may be as good as it gets. Riley may want to draft a center in 2010 because Joel Anthony and Jamaal Magloire do not have the pedigree of starting centers. And forget about the Heat re-signing Jermaine O’Neal. The Raptors already tried a pairing of Bosh and O’Neal in the front-court. It didn’t work.

It’s also wise to forget about LeBron James coming to South Beach. Why would James want to go from the unquestioned face of the League to the questioned face of his own team? He could stay in Cleveland, go to the New Jersey Nets (which has cap space, Devin Harris, Brook Lopez and Jay-Z) or even the Chicago Bulls and he’d be the unquestioned leader of his team with the chance to win a championship. I wouldn’t be surprised if Riley wines and dines him, but I’m betting James tells Riles that he doesn’t want to be anyone’s Scottie Pippen.

As I have said before, pairing Wade and Bosh is a financial risk. It will help that two of Miami’s starters, Chalmers and Beasley, will still be in their rookie contracts, though. You may see Patrick Beverley getting more minutes than expected so that Riley will see if he can be a back-up to Chalmers. If so, that would bode very well for Miami. Beverley and Cook would still be in their rookie contracts while Joel Anthony or Jamaal Magloire could be re-signed for around $1 million. Jones will have to play well this season if he wants Riley to exercise his $4.6 million option for the 2010-11 season. All that leaves is the back-up power forward spot, and Riley could re-sign Udonis Haslem (although he won’t be making the $7.1 million he’s scheduled to receive this season when he’s just a back-up). If Riley wants to be more frugal, he’ll just use Beasley at the four when Bosh is on the bench.

All of this looks like a high-octane team that is also financially sound. But this upcoming season must work. Chalmers must prove that he can be a starting point guard. Beasley must prove that he can be effective as the small forward. Cook must prove that he can be instant offense off the bench. And Jones must prove that he can be in the mold of James Posey and Eddie Jones this season. If not, then we may see a total overhaul of this team in 2010. That is why the 2009-10 season is a vital part of Riley’s plan.