mvn
Posted November 14th, 2009 by mvn
Tags: Football
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Preview: Bucks vs. Golden State Warriors

Bucks should win a fairly fast paced game

Tonight the Bucks play the Don Nelson-led Golden State Warriors.  Golden State is coming off an easy road win last night over the hapless New York Knicks, 121-107.   Golden State is an unconventional, fast paced team.  And those kind of teams can be dangerously unpredictable.

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Nevertheless, “Point Value over Average” analysis predicts a comfortable Bucks win:

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PVOA Predicted Outcome on 101.1 possessions:

Milwaukee  106

Golden State 94

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I also did a Win Score based analysis of the Warriors top contributors (doesn’t include the Knicks game).  You can see the chart here.  As you can see, Golden State’s most dangerous players are SF Kelenna Azubuike and C/PF Anthony Randolph.  Azubuike doesn’t play much defense, but he certainly produces positive statistics.  Randolph looks like an emerging star.  He’s really filled out his frame since his college days at LSU, and its helped him to become a rebounding machine.  He’s also proving to be a staunch defender as well.  (For some weird reason Nelson doesn’t like him, though.  This could be a lucky break for the Bucks if Nelson plays Mikki Moore instead of Randolph. Last night that’s what happened.)

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Other than those two, you have Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson making average contributions.   Anthony Morrow is productive but plays poor defense while Corey Maggette plays defense but has not produced.  Rookie PG Stephen Curry has struggled mightily on both ends, as I thought he might.  Brandon Jennings should be able to do whatever he wants with Curry. (Although I see Curry barely played last night.  Jennings may have to deal with Monta Ellis instead.  Much tougher.)

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