Brad’s Week 10 College Football Picks of the Week

First of all, can you believe we are already in Week 10 of the college football season?   This year has really flown by.  At any rate, I was bound to have one mediocre/bad week picking games and on Saturday it finally happened.  Even though 4-6 isn’t that bad of a week, it was the first time this year I finished under .500 on a particular Saturday.  I’ll try to regain my old form this week with another 10 picks for you  to look at.  Here are some quick thoughts about this week’s lines: there are a lot of games I like, but nothing I truly love.  I especially like an unsually high number of home teams.  One drawback, however, is that a lot of these lines are at 14 points or more (aka blowout spreads), which are always difficult to predict.  The spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered from most confident to least confident.

Pick # 1:  Houston (-1.5) vs. Tulsa- I’m still red-hot with my C-USA picks this year (though I needed a Houston miracle to preserve my unbeaten record  in one of my pools), so I’ll stick with it.  Tulsa is playing horribly right now, so I don’t see them beating the class of the conference, even if the game is at home.

Pick # 2: UCLA (-4.5) vs. Washington- As has been chronicled on this blog throughout the season, Washington has showed promise at home but has played dreadfully on the road.  UCLA is winless in conference, but has looked decent in their last few games and has appeared to found a capable quarterback in Kevin Prince after last week’s 4th quarter comeback against Oregon State.  I think the Bruins breakthrough here and get their first conference win of the season by a comfortable margin.

Pick # 3: Miami-FL (-13.5) vs. Virginia- I know the Canes’ didn’t cover last week after I called them the lock of the week, but now they are back at home and should roll over a struggling Cavs team.

Pick # 4: Michigan (-3.5) vs. Purdue- Both of these teams looked absolutely horrible last week and have struggled in general for most of the season.  However, I don’t see Purdue, with their 0-3 road record this year, coming into the Big House and challenging Michigan. 

Pick # 5: Oregon (-5.0) vs. Stanford- The Ducks have been rolling over over their opposition, on the road and at home, ever since their domination of Cal in late September.  Stanford is much improved this season and has played well at home, but I have no reason to believe they will be the first team in 2 months to give the Ducks a game. 

Pick # 6: Minnesota (-6.5) vs. Illinois- Illinois proved me wrong last week by getting a big win against Michigan.  However, I don’t see this being the sign of a miraculous last season turnaround for the Ilini like some are talking about.  I think it is more likely than not that we see Illinois’ struggles continue this week when considering they have dropped all 4 of their road games this year by double-digits, including embarrasing losses to Indiana and Purdue.   Minnesota, on the other hand, has responded very well to the loss of Decker and has looked very good at home all season. 

Pick # 7: Oklahoma State (-7.5) vs. Iowa State- With the exception of Baylor and maybe Texas A & M, all of the Big 12 South teams should beat their North counterparts by double-digits for the remainder of the season.  I expect no different in this game, as the Cowboys come in to Ames fired up after being demolished by Texas last Saturday.  The Cyclones, on the other hand, are a good story this year, but when push comes to shove, their best win in a game where they weren’t handed 1,000 turnovers  (like vs. Nebraska) was against Baylor.

Pick # 8: UL-Monroe (+1.0) vs. North Texas- This is now my underdog pick of the week, as Monroe somehow went from a point and a half favorite to a 1-point dog here.  Since their season-opening shocker over Ball State,  North Texas has been winless, with the exception of last week’s triumph over lowly Western Kentucky.  Now Monroe comes to town with its sights on its first ever bowl bid.  I expect the Warhawks to take care of business in this one.

Pick # 9: SMU (-17.0) vs. Rice- Rice has been the “go to” team to bet against all year, as they have failed to cover the spread in their last five games.  I don’t see that trend changing in this one, as the Mustangs have the offensive power to romp the Owls, just like everyone else has been doing. 

Pick # 10: Kent State (-3.0) vs. Akron- I underestimated the Flashes last week,  as they pulled out a big victory over Western Michigan and have now become my most impressive preseason surprise pick.  They need just two more wins to be guaranteed their  first bowl bid since their 1972 Tangerine Bowl loss to a team that no longer plays Division 1 football (University of Tampa???).  With those kind of stakes hanging in the balance, I don’t see the Flashes dropping this road game against the struggling Zips.